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15 years 1 month ago #23910
by Joe Keller
Replied by Joe Keller on topic Reply from
Precession Resonance for Mayan and Barbarossa Periods
Above, I found that the best convergence of the seven (five solar system planetary orbital, and Lunar apse & node, first or second) harmonics, was 5124.58yr, close to the Mayan Long Count. In another post above, I found that the precession period of Venus' orbit about Earth's, if Earth's were held fixed, is 21.99558 * 6340yr, thus showing resonance with Barbarossa's orbital period.
I find also that the precession period of Earth's orbit about Jupiter's, if Jupiter's were held fixed, is 27.983 * 5124.58yr, showing resonance with the Mayan Long Count. The precession period of Jupiter's orbit about Saturn's, if Saturn's were held fixed, is 21.487 * 6340yr, similar to Venus about fixed Earth, but near the half cycle of Barbarossa's period. The precession period of Mercury's orbit about Venus', if Venus' were held fixed, is 27.965 * 2 * 5124.58yr, again showing resonance with the Mayan Long Count.
Above, I found that the best convergence of the seven (five solar system planetary orbital, and Lunar apse & node, first or second) harmonics, was 5124.58yr, close to the Mayan Long Count. In another post above, I found that the precession period of Venus' orbit about Earth's, if Earth's were held fixed, is 21.99558 * 6340yr, thus showing resonance with Barbarossa's orbital period.
I find also that the precession period of Earth's orbit about Jupiter's, if Jupiter's were held fixed, is 27.983 * 5124.58yr, showing resonance with the Mayan Long Count. The precession period of Jupiter's orbit about Saturn's, if Saturn's were held fixed, is 21.487 * 6340yr, similar to Venus about fixed Earth, but near the half cycle of Barbarossa's period. The precession period of Mercury's orbit about Venus', if Venus' were held fixed, is 27.965 * 2 * 5124.58yr, again showing resonance with the Mayan Long Count.
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15 years 1 month ago #23118
by Joe Keller
Replied by Joe Keller on topic Reply from
Open Challenge to Dr. David Morrison
email sent five minutes ago to Dr. David Morrison, NASA/IAU senior scientist,
david.morrison@arc.nasa.gov &
dmorrison@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Dear Dr. Morrison:
I saw your article in the current issue of "Skeptic" magazine, arguing that 2012 will not be a catastrophe. I think it will be a catastrophe.
I'll debate you, or any Ph.D. employed by either NASA or the IAU, on either or both of the subjects, "2012 will be a catastrophe" or "Planet X exists" (I'll take the "pro" sides). I'll debate any or all of you, anywhere, anytime, in any format, though for lack of money, I'll have to phone in.
A year ago, Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson politely declined to debate me about "Planet X". Dr. Phil Plait ignored my challenge, and censored me from his messageboard. Dr. Clay Sherrod led the successful effort to censor me from the ALPO messageboards.
Sincerely,
Joseph C. Keller, M. D.
(B. A., cumlaude, Mathematics, Harvard)
email sent five minutes ago to Dr. David Morrison, NASA/IAU senior scientist,
david.morrison@arc.nasa.gov &
dmorrison@mail.arc.nasa.gov
Dear Dr. Morrison:
I saw your article in the current issue of "Skeptic" magazine, arguing that 2012 will not be a catastrophe. I think it will be a catastrophe.
I'll debate you, or any Ph.D. employed by either NASA or the IAU, on either or both of the subjects, "2012 will be a catastrophe" or "Planet X exists" (I'll take the "pro" sides). I'll debate any or all of you, anywhere, anytime, in any format, though for lack of money, I'll have to phone in.
A year ago, Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson politely declined to debate me about "Planet X". Dr. Phil Plait ignored my challenge, and censored me from his messageboard. Dr. Clay Sherrod led the successful effort to censor me from the ALPO messageboards.
Sincerely,
Joseph C. Keller, M. D.
(B. A., cumlaude, Mathematics, Harvard)
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15 years 1 month ago #23912
by Joe Keller
Replied by Joe Keller on topic Reply from
<blockquote id="quote"><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" id="quote">quote:<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"><i>Originally posted by Joe Keller</i>
<br />Open Challenge to Dr. David Morrison
...
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">
No response as of Nov. 15, 2009.
<br />Open Challenge to Dr. David Morrison
...
<hr height="1" noshade id="quote"></blockquote id="quote"></font id="quote">
No response as of Nov. 15, 2009.
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15 years 1 month ago #23121
by Joe Keller
Replied by Joe Keller on topic Reply from
Accurizing the "Crouching Tiger"
My most complete and accurate estimate of the period of the proto-Jupiter, now is 11.871464 Julian yr = 6339.501 tropical yr divided by 534 (this precision is limited by, among other things, the seven-digit precision of Jupiter's semimajor axis). As before, I assume that all semimajor axes were preserved, but that proto-Jupiter's mass was distributed symmetrically.
In this estimate, I account accurately for the influence of all other planets and moons, including Barbarossa (a small influence, due to its great distance). Orbital eccentricities are assumed to be zero, except that, for Barbarossa, I use the eccentricity, 0.6106, that I find from the sky surveys.
The most important change in my calculation, is that instead of assuming that the proto-Jupiter mass was at three equally spaced Lagrange points, I assume that it was spread into a wide ring (an infinitesimally narrow ring gives an infinite effect). I estimate the effect of this ring, by assuming that it is wide enough that the net effect is zero nearby. The effect is proportional to 1/2/sqrt(2) at 90deg, and 1/4 at 180deg. The effect, as a function of theta, is periodic with local minima at 0 and 180. So, the best numerical integration, using values at 0, 90, 180, & 270, is with equal weights. This, and some smaller accurizations, decrease the implied interval from 6339.637 tropical yr (with the Lagrange point distribution) to *6339.501 trop yr* (with my new preferred wide ring estimate).
If I were a year off, and the Egyptian calendar began at the summer solstice 4328BC instead of 4329BC, then the time to the winter solstice 2012AD, is (assuming today's precession rate) *6339.5032 trop yr*, accounting for Earth's longitude of perihelion in 4328BC and in 2012AD (est. advance of Earth's perihelion: 360deg in 112,000 yr; est. effective eccentricity, 0.017). The discrepancy, between this time interval, and the interval resonant with the proto-Jupiter, is only 0.002yr = 0.7day.
Another approach to Barbarossa's period, is through the Bessel functions of the second kind (Neumann functions). The ratio of the Mayan Long Count, or rather, more precisely, the best grand visible solar system cycle, 5124.58 Julian yr, which I discuss above, to Barbarossa's period (assumed to be 6339.5032 modern tropical yr) is 1::1.23705. This is close to the ratio, 1.24113, of the first peaks, of the first and third Neumann functions. It is even closer to the ratio, 1.23422, of the first peaks of (Neumann function / (1/sqrt(x) ), that is, the approximate ordinates where the first and third Neumann functions first touch their common envelope, if one approximates that envelope by a function A/sqrt(x). The precise calculation of these envelope points, gives the ratio, 1.23113.
(Neumann functions can be found from rapidly convergent series in Apostol's Calculus, vol. 2, or in Franklin's Calculus. The series in Apostol omits the factor 2/pi which Franklin includes. The formula in Franklin contains a grossly erroneous definition of the "psi" function, which contradicts both Apostol, and Jahnke & Emde.
Franklin gives the method for finding envelope curves. This requires finding the derivative of the Neumann function with respect to its order. Difficulties arise from the definition, of the integer-order Neumann function, as a limit. I use Hankel's complex-valued integral formula in Jahnke & Emde, for H1, with k=1, to overcome these difficulties. The formula ultimately requires values of the "factorial function" near x = -1/2; Jahnke & Emde give the exact values of the factorial function, and its logarithmic derivative and second derivative, at x = -1/2.)
My most complete and accurate estimate of the period of the proto-Jupiter, now is 11.871464 Julian yr = 6339.501 tropical yr divided by 534 (this precision is limited by, among other things, the seven-digit precision of Jupiter's semimajor axis). As before, I assume that all semimajor axes were preserved, but that proto-Jupiter's mass was distributed symmetrically.
In this estimate, I account accurately for the influence of all other planets and moons, including Barbarossa (a small influence, due to its great distance). Orbital eccentricities are assumed to be zero, except that, for Barbarossa, I use the eccentricity, 0.6106, that I find from the sky surveys.
The most important change in my calculation, is that instead of assuming that the proto-Jupiter mass was at three equally spaced Lagrange points, I assume that it was spread into a wide ring (an infinitesimally narrow ring gives an infinite effect). I estimate the effect of this ring, by assuming that it is wide enough that the net effect is zero nearby. The effect is proportional to 1/2/sqrt(2) at 90deg, and 1/4 at 180deg. The effect, as a function of theta, is periodic with local minima at 0 and 180. So, the best numerical integration, using values at 0, 90, 180, & 270, is with equal weights. This, and some smaller accurizations, decrease the implied interval from 6339.637 tropical yr (with the Lagrange point distribution) to *6339.501 trop yr* (with my new preferred wide ring estimate).
If I were a year off, and the Egyptian calendar began at the summer solstice 4328BC instead of 4329BC, then the time to the winter solstice 2012AD, is (assuming today's precession rate) *6339.5032 trop yr*, accounting for Earth's longitude of perihelion in 4328BC and in 2012AD (est. advance of Earth's perihelion: 360deg in 112,000 yr; est. effective eccentricity, 0.017). The discrepancy, between this time interval, and the interval resonant with the proto-Jupiter, is only 0.002yr = 0.7day.
Another approach to Barbarossa's period, is through the Bessel functions of the second kind (Neumann functions). The ratio of the Mayan Long Count, or rather, more precisely, the best grand visible solar system cycle, 5124.58 Julian yr, which I discuss above, to Barbarossa's period (assumed to be 6339.5032 modern tropical yr) is 1::1.23705. This is close to the ratio, 1.24113, of the first peaks, of the first and third Neumann functions. It is even closer to the ratio, 1.23422, of the first peaks of (Neumann function / (1/sqrt(x) ), that is, the approximate ordinates where the first and third Neumann functions first touch their common envelope, if one approximates that envelope by a function A/sqrt(x). The precise calculation of these envelope points, gives the ratio, 1.23113.
(Neumann functions can be found from rapidly convergent series in Apostol's Calculus, vol. 2, or in Franklin's Calculus. The series in Apostol omits the factor 2/pi which Franklin includes. The formula in Franklin contains a grossly erroneous definition of the "psi" function, which contradicts both Apostol, and Jahnke & Emde.
Franklin gives the method for finding envelope curves. This requires finding the derivative of the Neumann function with respect to its order. Difficulties arise from the definition, of the integer-order Neumann function, as a limit. I use Hankel's complex-valued integral formula in Jahnke & Emde, for H1, with k=1, to overcome these difficulties. The formula ultimately requires values of the "factorial function" near x = -1/2; Jahnke & Emde give the exact values of the factorial function, and its logarithmic derivative and second derivative, at x = -1/2.)
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15 years 3 weeks ago #23770
by Joe Keller
Replied by Joe Keller on topic Reply from
The Mayan Long Count, Barbarossa Interval and Legendre Polynomials
The Mayan Long Count really is based (see my previous posts) on what arguably is the most practical approximate least common multiple, or grand cycle, of the main periods of the (unaided eye observable) inner and outer solar system. This is 5124.58 Julian yr according to my reasonable mathematical definition using modern data.
Imitating the Maya or their predecessors, Joseph Scaliger apparently used Ptolemy's (less accurate) Lunar node and apse periods, to find a completely analogous grand cycle, but of periods of the inner solar system only, plus Barbarossa. The best such grand cycle would have been 6295yr, which is the interval between Julian Day Zero, and the first New Year of the Gregorian calendar.
Apparently Scaliger disguised his Hermetic calculation, in the guise of an arbitrary multiplication of trivial calendric cycles, whose end product, 7980yr, has little importance. The Maya adopted 360days * 20 * 20 * 13 = 5125.257 Julian yr, not for disguise, but for popularity and convenience. Scaliger, on the other hand, needed a believable excuse for his cycle; he had survived the Huguenot massacre, and eventually outlived Giordano Bruno.
Also there is the Barbarossa interval of cataclysmic Earth change: defined either as Barbarossa's orbital period according to my estimate from the four sky survey images (6339.93 Julian yr), or as exactly 534x the period of the proto-Jupiter (6339.362 Julian yr), or as the interval from the beginning of the Egyptian calendar (according to my explanation of "Sothic dates") to the end of the Mayan Long Count (6340.361 Julian yr +/- one whole tropical yr), or as half the interval from Brauer's Younger Dryas Onset to the end of the Mayan Long Count (~6341.5yr). Choosing the 6339.361 Julian yr = 6339.5000 tropical yr as most accurate and reliable, the ratio of this interval, to the Mayan Long Count, is 1.237050.
Above, I equated this ratio, approximately, to the ratio of ordinates of first peaks, or, approximately, of ordinates of first envelope points, of the first and third Neumann functions (Bessel functions of the second kind). Today I find a more accurate equation: it is a general resonance of Legendre polynomials.
Let's find the point on the unit interval, where the ratios of the Legendre polynomials oftenest approach (+/-) a power of two. From a table of the first few Legendre polynomials, it appears that one, is such a point (by definition they all equal one, at one) but also 0.81 is such a point.
Using an IBM 486 computer, and finding the values of the Legendre polynomials by the recurrence relation, I find that for the first 60 Legendre polynomials, the peak of this resonance, i.e., the maximum within the *interior* of the unit interval (excluding the portion near one) of the sum of cos(2*pi*(log(abs(Pi))-log(abs(Pj)))/log(2)) over all i,j, is 0.81173 = 1/1.23194. For the first 70, 80, 90, or 100 polynomials, this local maximum of the resonance, 0.81173, decreases steadily, by monotonically smaller decrements, to 0.81050 = 1/1.23381. Assuming that the tail is proportional to 1/n, the value 1.23194 at 60 and the value 1.23381 at 100, imply a limiting value, for all the Legendre polynomials, of 1.236615. This corresponds to a Barbarossa interval of 5124.58 * 1.236615 = 6337.13 Julian yr.
The Mayan Long Count really is based (see my previous posts) on what arguably is the most practical approximate least common multiple, or grand cycle, of the main periods of the (unaided eye observable) inner and outer solar system. This is 5124.58 Julian yr according to my reasonable mathematical definition using modern data.
Imitating the Maya or their predecessors, Joseph Scaliger apparently used Ptolemy's (less accurate) Lunar node and apse periods, to find a completely analogous grand cycle, but of periods of the inner solar system only, plus Barbarossa. The best such grand cycle would have been 6295yr, which is the interval between Julian Day Zero, and the first New Year of the Gregorian calendar.
Apparently Scaliger disguised his Hermetic calculation, in the guise of an arbitrary multiplication of trivial calendric cycles, whose end product, 7980yr, has little importance. The Maya adopted 360days * 20 * 20 * 13 = 5125.257 Julian yr, not for disguise, but for popularity and convenience. Scaliger, on the other hand, needed a believable excuse for his cycle; he had survived the Huguenot massacre, and eventually outlived Giordano Bruno.
Also there is the Barbarossa interval of cataclysmic Earth change: defined either as Barbarossa's orbital period according to my estimate from the four sky survey images (6339.93 Julian yr), or as exactly 534x the period of the proto-Jupiter (6339.362 Julian yr), or as the interval from the beginning of the Egyptian calendar (according to my explanation of "Sothic dates") to the end of the Mayan Long Count (6340.361 Julian yr +/- one whole tropical yr), or as half the interval from Brauer's Younger Dryas Onset to the end of the Mayan Long Count (~6341.5yr). Choosing the 6339.361 Julian yr = 6339.5000 tropical yr as most accurate and reliable, the ratio of this interval, to the Mayan Long Count, is 1.237050.
Above, I equated this ratio, approximately, to the ratio of ordinates of first peaks, or, approximately, of ordinates of first envelope points, of the first and third Neumann functions (Bessel functions of the second kind). Today I find a more accurate equation: it is a general resonance of Legendre polynomials.
Let's find the point on the unit interval, where the ratios of the Legendre polynomials oftenest approach (+/-) a power of two. From a table of the first few Legendre polynomials, it appears that one, is such a point (by definition they all equal one, at one) but also 0.81 is such a point.
Using an IBM 486 computer, and finding the values of the Legendre polynomials by the recurrence relation, I find that for the first 60 Legendre polynomials, the peak of this resonance, i.e., the maximum within the *interior* of the unit interval (excluding the portion near one) of the sum of cos(2*pi*(log(abs(Pi))-log(abs(Pj)))/log(2)) over all i,j, is 0.81173 = 1/1.23194. For the first 70, 80, 90, or 100 polynomials, this local maximum of the resonance, 0.81173, decreases steadily, by monotonically smaller decrements, to 0.81050 = 1/1.23381. Assuming that the tail is proportional to 1/n, the value 1.23194 at 60 and the value 1.23381 at 100, imply a limiting value, for all the Legendre polynomials, of 1.236615. This corresponds to a Barbarossa interval of 5124.58 * 1.236615 = 6337.13 Julian yr.
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15 years 3 weeks ago #23126
by Joe Keller
Replied by Joe Keller on topic Reply from
The Mayan Long Count, Barbarossa Interval and Legendre Polynomials
(cont.)
(In the previous post, "first 60 polynomials", etc., means first 60 pairs of even & odd polynomials.)
Applying the trigonometry formula for the cosine of a difference, then Fubini's theorem, the sum in the previous post, becomes a convolution as for a periodogram. With the first 5000 pairs (i.e. first 10,000) of Legendre polynomials, the maximum periodicity of log(abs(Pi(x))), for log(2), is at x = 0.809047, 1/x = 1.236022. Multiplying by the presumed underlying Mayan Long Count interval, 5124.58 Julian yr (this is the solar system resonance, which is approximated in Mayan-style round numbers, by the actual Mayan calendar Long Count) gives 6334.09 Julian yr.
Maybe this "Legendre2resonance" = "Leg2" = approx. 0.809047, must be divided, in this physical application, by "g/2" where g is the electron gyromagnetic ratio, 2.0023193044. That would give 6341.44 Julian yr = 6341.58 tropical yr, as the Barbarossa period, exactly half the time, 12683 yr, from Brauer's Younger Dryas onset to Dec. 2012AD.
Another approach to adjustment, is to note that 1 + Leg2 + Leg2^2 +... = 1/(1-Leg2), nearly equals the ratio of Jupiter's and Earth's major axes. Taking Jupiter's semimajor axis as 5.204267 AU, and assuming that the foregoing equation is exact, gives a slightly corrected value for Leg2, which gives 6343.480 Julian yr as the Barbarossa period.
Likewise, I note that 1/(1-Leg2)^2 nearly equals the number of mean solar days, 27.32166, in one sidereal Lunar month. Assuming the equation is exact, refines Leg2, and gives 6336.921 Julian yr as Barbarossa's period.
Finally, with the draconitic Lunar month, 27.21222 d, instead of the sidereal, the refinement of Leg2, to satisfy the equation 1/(1-Leg2)^2 = draconitic month::mean solar day, gives 6339.934 Julian yr as Barbarossa's period. Early this year, my fitting of an orbit to the sky survey detections, gave 6339.93 Julian yr.
(cont.)
(In the previous post, "first 60 polynomials", etc., means first 60 pairs of even & odd polynomials.)
Applying the trigonometry formula for the cosine of a difference, then Fubini's theorem, the sum in the previous post, becomes a convolution as for a periodogram. With the first 5000 pairs (i.e. first 10,000) of Legendre polynomials, the maximum periodicity of log(abs(Pi(x))), for log(2), is at x = 0.809047, 1/x = 1.236022. Multiplying by the presumed underlying Mayan Long Count interval, 5124.58 Julian yr (this is the solar system resonance, which is approximated in Mayan-style round numbers, by the actual Mayan calendar Long Count) gives 6334.09 Julian yr.
Maybe this "Legendre2resonance" = "Leg2" = approx. 0.809047, must be divided, in this physical application, by "g/2" where g is the electron gyromagnetic ratio, 2.0023193044. That would give 6341.44 Julian yr = 6341.58 tropical yr, as the Barbarossa period, exactly half the time, 12683 yr, from Brauer's Younger Dryas onset to Dec. 2012AD.
Another approach to adjustment, is to note that 1 + Leg2 + Leg2^2 +... = 1/(1-Leg2), nearly equals the ratio of Jupiter's and Earth's major axes. Taking Jupiter's semimajor axis as 5.204267 AU, and assuming that the foregoing equation is exact, gives a slightly corrected value for Leg2, which gives 6343.480 Julian yr as the Barbarossa period.
Likewise, I note that 1/(1-Leg2)^2 nearly equals the number of mean solar days, 27.32166, in one sidereal Lunar month. Assuming the equation is exact, refines Leg2, and gives 6336.921 Julian yr as Barbarossa's period.
Finally, with the draconitic Lunar month, 27.21222 d, instead of the sidereal, the refinement of Leg2, to satisfy the equation 1/(1-Leg2)^2 = draconitic month::mean solar day, gives 6339.934 Julian yr as Barbarossa's period. Early this year, my fitting of an orbit to the sky survey detections, gave 6339.93 Julian yr.
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